In our communication about risk we often call upon the words safety and security. This seems to suggest that our ideal state is certainty rather than uncertainty. Studies have demonstrated that this is indeed what people want... or at least think they want. Paradoxically, we could be restricting our opportunites for happiness by searching for certainty.

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Do we really know what we want? I recently read Stumbling on Happiness by Daniel Gilbert, which tries to answer this question. And his answer is 'No'. Professor Gilbert, who is a psychologist at Harvard, tells us that we rely heavily on our imagination when it comes to happiness. No surprise there if we're thinking about what might make us happy in the future. What is more surprising is that our memories rely on imagination too. We store in our brains only outlines of memories. Imagination fills in the gaps automatically as part of the process of recollection.

What does this mean for our happiness now, in the present? (Where is happiness if not in the here and now?) The first thing it means is that happiness relies on imagination to embellish vague memories and to visualize future events. However, imagination is influenced by how we feel at the moment, so there is a feedback loop. The happier I am today, the better will be my memories and the more positive I will be about the future.

The Cost of Certainty

In his book Gilbert cites a paper, The Pleasures of Uncertainty, which he co-authored with some researchers from the University of Virginia. In their introduction they write:

"The benefit of knowledge is that it makes the world more predictable, but the cost is that a predictable world sometimes seems less delicious, less exciting, less poignant."

They then put forward the theory that, by trying to understand everything, we are destroying some of the pleasures in life. And they go on to present the results of studies that support their hypothesis.

Apparently, the same mental processes that help us to recover from the death of a loved one can also reduce our enjoyment of a happy event. The researchers set up situations in which people were recipients of random acts of kindness or positive personal reviews. These kind acts and positive reviews gave the recipients an emotional lift. But their happiness lasted longer when they were unable to explain why the acts had occurred or which reviewers had given the positive feedback. In other words, they prolonged their state of happiness when there was uncertainty.

The same happens with the future as it does with the past. We imagine it pretty inaccurately, based on our disposition and present mood. I have known for a long time that I often enjoy my holidays as much in prospect as in practice. I assumed that I was as unusual in this as I am in other ways. I now know that I'm normal, at least in this respect. Likewise, I worry about future events that turn out to be nothing to worry about. That seems pretty normal too. Certainty is much less exciting than uncertainty. No risk, no fear. But equally, no risk no fun.

The Pleasures of Uncertainty paper by Wilson, Centerbar, Kermer and Gilbert.