The entry in my risk blog that has attracted the greatest number of hits is the one that I wrote about the UK floods in July. So, I thought I would go with the flow, so to speak, and say a little more on the subject. I'm just reading Statistics of Extremes by Emil Gumbel, one of the pioneers of flood risk analysis. There, amongst all the complicated mathematics, are some simple observations about the probability of flooding. » read more »

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. This common saying relates to one of the concepts in modern risk theory. But the proverb itself is anything but modern. English-language versions go back at least to the 15th century and a Latin version dates from around 1200. What about the many pubs and hotels with a similar name? Where is the oldest Bird in Hand inn? » read more »

The Credit Crunch Monster has been released into an unsuspecting world, a Frankenstein creation of the dreaded financial engineering. There has been much talk of leveraging... and now we hear of the even more horrific de-leveraging. What damage is this doing to the cause of clear communication? » read more »

The news this week about Prozac and similar antidepressants is... well... depressing. A new analysis of old data has found that these drugs don't work. How can this be? Prozac alone has been taken by over 50 million people and the drug has been in use for over 20 years. The story has attracted a great deal of comment from many angles. In fact, this story has more angles than a geometry problem. My angle is diversity and uncertainty. (OK, maybe that's two angles!) » read more »

Nude mountaineering... it's real! And I thought I had made it up. When I mentioned nude mountaineering on the introduction page of this website, it was intended to embody the concept of extreme risk in a light-hearted way. But now I must apologize to the Strippers with Altitude of the Nude Mountaineering Society, who like to enjoy their on-top-of-the-world experiences wearing only hat, boots and rucksack. » read more »