The Calculus of Risk
See how the spin distracts you from the main story! That's how it was, and always has been, with Tony Blair. On 29 January, the former British Prime Minister appeared before the Chilcot Inquiry to explain why he led the country to war with Iraq in 2003. In the immortal words of Denis Healey, it was for Mr Blair 'like being savaged by a dead sheep'. The inquisitors allowed him plenty of freedom to deploy his customary smoke and mirrors.
One sentence used by Blair has been widely reported:
'The crucial thing after September 11th is that the calculus of risk changed.'
Many reporters have enclosed the phrase 'calculus of risk' in quotation marks, perhaps highlighting the fact that it was what Blair said but that they don't understand what he meant by it. Or perhaps the quotation marks suggest that Blair invented the phrase? This he certainly did not do. The expression was used during the nineties, originally by military and government sources in the US and then by sociologists after it appeared in the works of the influential German sociologist Ulrich Beck.
So, what did Blair mean by the 'calculus of risk'? Probably nothing in particular -- just a serious-sounding phrase to lend gravitas to his defence. The meaning of the word 'risk' is itself vague, meaning different things to different people. Couple it with the equally-mysterious word 'calculus' and you have both the smoke and the mirrors. Blair's 'calculus of risk' did not refer to some advanced risk-assessment methodology. No, it was something much more basic. By trying to make a link between 9/11 and Iraq -- and even raising the spectre of war with Iran -- Blair was, in fact, indulging in the traditional politics of fear.